I have written two blog postings over the years regarding trends in communication digitization, one in March of 2006 about the slow death of newspapers and one in December of 2006 about the impact of direct mail. Now, three years later, we're starting to see a formidable competitor to printed books. In yesterday's issue of eMarketer, an article about the success of Amazon's Kindle included some surprising revenue numbers. After a modest $5 million year in 2007, Amazon.com's digital reading service posted $117 million in 2008 and is on pace to hit $405 million this year before flirting with the $1 billion mark in 2010. How's that for hockey stick revenue growth in a tough economy?

I have admitted before that I am a pragmatist who waits on the skeptical side of the technology chasm until new concepts pick up steam. It probably doesn't make for exciting blogging about new gadgets and services, but I just don't have time to be a guinea pig for nine failed products before one good one comes along. That's what early adopters are for ; ) That said, I have tried Kindle on my iPhone and I think it has its advantages and disadvantages. Do I enjoy the luxury of not having to stuff a book into my bag when I fly? Absolutely...after traveling to 40 U.S. states in the past few years, I have learned that anything I can do to avoid checking baggage is a step in the right direction. However, do I like sapping my iPhone battery's strength while I'm on the plane? No way, that thing needs to be charged every few seconds as it is. Same goes for the computer download version of Kindle - I already have to take three laptop batteries with me when I hop on an airplane. More importantly, do I want to stare at a little screen for more hours than is already required in my professional life? I think that's the crux of this trend. Not necessarily, but I recognize that there is a generational gap between paper-lovers and screen-starers, and the former group will eventually become the minority.

Now, I realize that the most prevalent way to experience Kindle is on one of their special readers, such as their DX model. However, paying $359 for something only slightly larger than my iPhone and smaller than my laptop doesn't make much sense to me. Plus, I'd still have to carry an additional gadget around, which seems to be the failing point for many products (such as portable DVD players). Still, a December 2008 survey found that 8% of respondents use Kindle and 27% of them showed direct interest in trying or buying one. The remaining population might seem like a significant number (65%), but keep in mind that roughly 93% of our nation's citizens do not own an iPhone.

Regardless of how I personally feel about the usability of Kindle (I am, after all, a slow adopting pragmatist, remember?) the dramatic adoption rate can't be ignored. I'm sure paper books will always have a vestigial presence, as will newspapers, magazines and direct mail, but I'd still recommend eventually selling that stock certificate you might have in your favorite paper company.